Paper: A small community model for the transmission of infectious diseases: comparison of school closure as an intervention in individual-based models of an influenza pandemic

Reference:

Milne, G. J., Kelso, J. K., Kelly, H. A., Huband, S. T., & McVernon, J. (2008). A small community model for the transmission of infectious diseases: comparison of school closure as an intervention in individual-based models of an influenza pandemic. PloS one, 3(12).

We modelled the spread of pandemic influenza in this community and the effect on daily and final attack rates of four social distancing measures: school closure, increased case isolation, workplace non-attendance and community contact reduction

We showed that published individual based models estimate similar final attack rates over a range of values for R0 in a pandemic where no interventions have been implemented; that multiple social distancing measures applied early and continuously can be very effective in interrupting transmission of the pandemic virus for R0 values up to 2.5; and that different conclusions reached on the simulated benefit of school closure in published models appear to result from differences in assumptions about the timing and duration of school closure and flow-on effects on other social contacts resulting from school closure.

The effect on the infection rate was more dramatic in the model of Germann et al, decreasing from 65% to 44%, but this model assumed that school closure caused no additional increase in interpersonal contact [10]. Early and continuous school closure in the model of Glass et al resulted in a decrease in the infection rate from 73% to 50% [11].

Our model, also assuming early and continuous school closure, resulted in a decrease in infection rate from 67% to 55%.

Multiple social distancing measures applied early and continuously can be very effective in interrupting transmission of the pandemic virus for R0 values up to 2.5;  (p 7)

Models of the spread and control of pandemic influenza have the potential to assist policy makers with decisions about which control strategies to adopt. However, attention needs to be given by policy makers to the assumptions underpinning both the models and the control strategies examined.

Note: The results of our model, and of most of the other individual based models, are applicable to industrialised populations and may not be applicable to developing countries with lower population mobility and higher population densities. (p.7)