Paper: The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak

The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the

2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak

Downloaded from http://science.sciencemag.org/ on April 29, 2020

FINDING :

The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days in mainland China but had a more marked effect on the international scale, where case importations were reduced by nearly 80% until mid-February.

Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.

The model indicates that although the Wuhan travel ban was initially effective at reducing

international case importations, the number of imported cases outside mainland China will

continue to grow after 2 to 3 weeks. Furthermore, the modeling study shows that additional

travel limitations (up to 90% of traffic) have only a modest effect unless paired with

public health interventions and behavioural changes that can facilitate a considerable reduction in disease transmissibility (37)