Paper: The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak

Reference:

Chinazzi, M., Davis, J. T., Ajelli, M., Gioannini, C., Litvinova, M., Merler, S., ... & Viboud, C. (2020). The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Science, 368(6489), 395-400.

We performed a sensitivity analysis by considering different combinations of average latent and infectious periods, detection rates, initial conditions, and a generation time (T_g) ranging from 6 to 11 days on the basis of plausible ranges from the SARS epidemic and recent analysis of COVID-19 data

We estimate the effects of the travel ban implemented in Wuhan and the international travel restrictions adopted by several countries in early February 2020.

The result suggest that early detection, hand washing, self-isolation and household quarantine will likely be more effective than travel  restrictions at mitigating this pandemic

Travel limitation plus public helath interventions

The modeling study shows that additional

travel limitations (up to 90% of traffic) have only a modest effect unless paired with

public health interventions and behavioural changes that can facilitate a considerable reduction in disease transmissibility (37)

Travel limitation plus public helath interventions

The modeling study shows that additional

travel limitations (up to 90% of traffic) have only a modest effect unless paired with

public health interventions and behavioural changes that can facilitate a considerable reduction in disease transmissibility (37)

The model indicates that although the Wuhan travel ban was initially effective at reducing international case importations, the number of imported cases outside mainland China will continue to grow after 2 to 3 weeks.

Furthermore, the modeling study shows that additional travel limitations (up to 90% of traffic) have only a modest effect unless paired with public health interventions and behavioral changes that can facilitate a considerable reduction in disease transmissibility (37).

The model also indicates that, despite the strong restrictions on travel to and from mainland China since 23 January 2020, many individuals exposed to SARS-CoV-2 have been traveling internationally without being detected. Moving forward, we expect that travel restrictions to COVID-19–affected areas will have modest effects and that transmission reduction interventions will provide the greatest benefit for mitigating the epidemic. Our results provide data with potential uses for the definition of optimized containment schemes and mitigation policies, including the local and international dimensions of the COVID-19 epidemic