Sources: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099722008182536348/pdf/IDU-5f44fc78-656c-434f-9876-4aad0f0c6091.pdf
Emcet Oktay Taş, Ezgi Canpolat, Megan Cole, Abidah Setyowati, and Jasminah Woodhouse
This paper, titled "Spatial Analysis of Coal Transition Vulnerability in Indonesia," provides a mixed-methods analysis of how the transition away from coal will impact various regions of the country. The study was conducted by the World Bank Group and was published in August 2025.
Here is a summary of the key points:
Spatial Patterns of Vulnerability across Indonesia
Notes:
Women in coal-dependent communities may be excluded from the direct economic benefits of
mining while bearing social and environmental costs, such as pollution-related health issues and increased care burdens. Their participation in informal roles across the coal ecosystem is lesser known. In Indonesia, women make up only about 4 percent of formal coal industry employees and 7 percent of the broader mining sector workforce (MEMR, 2020). As women face barriers in accessing formal mining jobs, they are not included in transition support programs like retraining. The potential decline in company-funded social
services upon mine closure, like health and education, could disproportionately affect women who rely
more heavily on these services for themselves and their families. Economic hardship resulting from job
losses, often affecting males, exacerbate risks of tension and disputes within households.
(page 24)
Finally, young people in coal regions, particularly those without higher education, often find
employment in informal or low-skilled support roles within the mining value chain. They typically lack the experience, formal contracts, and access to social protection or transition support available to formal sector workers. This leaves them highly vulnerable to unemployment and involvement in illegal activities as opportunities dwindle. Further, the perspectives of the youth are often marginalized in decision-making processes. Compounding the issue, in many coal-dependent regions, aspirations among youth remain tied to mining careers, with university mining majors and vocational school students often dreaming of mining industry careers after graduation due to the visibility of the industry, perceived lack of alternatives, and existing vocational training pathways, creating a challenging mismatch with the sector’s long-term decline.
Finally, indigenous groups (masyarakat adat) are also expected to be disproportionately affected
by the transition, due to factors such as land dispossession, environmental degradation impacting traditional livelihoods, and shift in cultural practices. While moving away from coal could ease some environmental pressures, it also carries other risks related to alternative land use, such as large-scale renewable energy projects, plantations for biomass, or other development initiatives. Ensuring respect for indigenous land rights, customary laws, and the principle of Free, Prior, and Informed Consent (FPIC) in transition planning is paramount.
(page 25)
Methodology
The paper uses a mixed-methods approach, combining a quantitative analysis with qualitative insights from stakeholder consultations and interviews. The quantitative analysis uses a new tool called the Coal Transition Vulnerability Index (CTVI). The CTVI assesses vulnerability based on three dimensions:
Exposure: The presence of coal mines, power plants, and other related infrastructure in a region.
Sensitivity: The degree to which a region is affected by the coal industry, based on its economic and social reliance on it.
Adaptive Capacity: The ability of a region, community, or household to adjust to the changes that come with the coal transition.
Main Findings
The study found that vulnerability to the coal transition is geographically concentrated in Indonesia. Provinces with the highest vulnerability are East Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, and South Sumatra, primarily due to their heavy dependence on coal mining and power generation for employment and economic activity. At the regency level, Kutai Kartanegara, Kutai Timur (both in East Kalimantan), Tanah Bumbu, and Tanah Laut (both in South Kalimantan) were identified as having the highest vulnerability.
The paper also highlights the disproportionate impact on certain vulnerable groups, including women, youth, indigenous communities, and informal workers. The localized nature of this vulnerability is further illustrated by case studies that show the challenges communities face from impending mine closures.
Recommendations and Considerations
The paper emphasizes the need for inclusive and tailored strategies to manage the socioeconomic impacts of the coal transition. It highlights several challenges and opportunities
Economic Diversification: Provinces with higher economic diversification, such as East Kalimantan, are better positioned to adapt to the transition, even if they have high exposure and sensitivity.
Alternative Livelihoods: The paper suggests land reclamation of former mining sites for agriculture or other uses, such as aquaculture or agro-tourism, as a potential strategy.
Renewable Energy: While renewable energy could create new jobs, it may not be a complete replacement for coal-related employment, and training programs will be necessary to help workers acquire new skills.
Stakeholder Engagement: Early planning and robust stakeholder engagement, involving local governments, communities, and companies, are crucial for a legitimate and fair transition.
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